A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
